MLS Expansion - The Vegas odds

The Las Vegas Sun offers up their odds for the 13 cities often mentioned in MLS expansion talks. They are looking at things in a 'how does Vegas' fit in kind of way, but they don't seem to let the homer symptom overly influence their thought process. Anyway, here are their odds:

Atlanta: 100-1
Cleveland: 60-1
Las Vegas: 10-1
Miami: 35-1
Milwaukee: 75-1
New York: 8-1
Philadelphia: 6-1
Phoenix: 20-1
Portland, Ore.: 40-1
San Diego: 100-1
Seattle: 3-2
St. Louis: 4-1
Vancouver: 70-1

They have a lot more information on the reasons behind these odds, so if you have a moment, you really should read the article.

As far as my thoughts on the odds, they look pretty much like they should, however I think St. Louis has better odds then Seattle. That said, it really doesn't matter much because both those cities would be my top 2 as well.

The New York odds seem a little high, but that might have to do with the article speculating not just on the 15th and 16th MLS clubs but also on the 17th and 18th. Fred Wilpon, an owner of baseball's New York Mets, is interested, but since the plan that seems to be out there calls for a soccer stadium to be built on the current site of Shea Stadium, they will need to wait till 2009 before they could even begin building such a project (that is when the new baseball stadium will open). That said, MLS wants a derby in New York and if there is a chance to have a stadium in the city, they will hold out for it.

It does seem like the Vegas odds are also a bit kind, but maybe they have some inside information (or maybe they are just hearing more about it and thinking it might come true). I would put their odds more at 20-1 with Miami and Portland a little bit behind them. The Miami bid really depends on Boca Juniors. If the club fully gets behind a bid, chances are good for them. As far as Portland, Seattle has very much climbed over them in the current race, but there is a good group of fans in the area and a Northwest derby would be a solid outing. Also, they already have a stadium that, with some improvements, could host games for the first few years.

The Phoenix option is very interesting and I'm guessing the reason heat was not listed in the piece is due to the talk of a stadium with a retractable-roof. There are two good groups going after this bid and both have good pedigrees. It might not have the glitz of a Vegas or the history of St. Louis, but they do draw some good crowds for big games. The problem is, most of those games involve Mexico and as has been proven in many other locations, international match draws don't always mean good local match draws. Still, I agree that they are the city most likely to surprise.

As far as the rest, I think Milwaukee has a slightly better chance then suggested while Cleveland has a little worse. Atlanta should be doing better but no local money seems interested, so their bid looks to be stalled. Philadelphia is probably the city MLS most wants to get into so if the stadium deal moves forward, it should happen. Vancouver seems like a natural fit, however with all the development issues that have been kicked up ahead of the 2010 Olympics, getting a stadium might be a little difficult. San Diego to me seems to be the longest shot due to stadium situations.

What do you think?

MLS still looking at San Diego

Much like St. Louis and Philadelphia, San Diego has been a target market for a MLS team since before the league existed, but never have all the ingredients come together to make it happen.

Turns out, they still are not coming together, but there might be a move in sight.

However, before we get there, let's take a look at why San Diego is of such interest.

It makes perfect sense when you consider the area's soccer demographics: tens of thousands of youth players, some of the nation's best youth clubs, the Sockers' glistening legacy, World Cup TV ratings more than double the national average, nearly 1 million people of Hispanic heritage with a love for the sport, and millions more in Mexico just a short drive away.

The main sticking point has been the total lack of a suitable stadium as the only options are the 70,000 seater Qualcomm Stadium or USD's Torero Stadium, which holds about 7,000. But could that change?

Enter San Jose Padres owner John Moores who has talked with MLS in the past. Moores obtained "'the sole option to lease from the city Qualcomm Stadium for professional soccer' in exchange for waiving revenue from the stadium's naming rights deal." There has been talk about Moores bringing a women's team to the area as part of the new pro league, but is that enough for him to turn down naming rights money?

With the Chargers wanting to move out of Qualcomm and into an American football specific stadium (the stadium was build for baseball as well), there might be some redevelopment happening soon. And that leads us to one more point, Moores is a big San Diego State fan.

So here is the scenario Mark Zeigler is suggesting.

Say the Chargers move out of Qualcomm, and the city redevelops the site. Moores or someone else, armed with two soccer tenants and a homeless SDSU football program, could propose building a smaller stadium somewhere in the county.

This proposal is very interesting in that it is very similar to what we just saw with Lew Wolff and the San Jose Earthquakes. In both cases you have a baseball owner trying to bring a soccer team to a supportive city, but needing a little help from the city and a public university to make it happen.

The potential is very much there for the Chargers to move, even if they do not get a new stadium. The team has threatened to move in 2008, but even if they did, I would imagine it would take a while for the city to agree to redevelop the land. Anything could happen, but with MLS wanted more concrete plans these days before they award a team, I don't think this will be happening soon.