The Las Vegas Sun offers up their odds for the 13 cities often mentioned in MLS expansion talks. They are looking at things in a 'how does Vegas' fit in kind of way, but they don't seem to let the homer symptom overly influence their thought process. Anyway, here are
their odds:
Atlanta: 100-1
Cleveland: 60-1
Las Vegas: 10-1
Miami: 35-1
Milwaukee: 75-1
New York: 8-1
Philadelphia: 6-1
Phoenix: 20-1
Portland, Ore.: 40-1
San Diego: 100-1
Seattle: 3-2
St. Louis: 4-1
Vancouver: 70-1
They have a lot more information on the reasons behind these odds, so if you have a moment, you really should
read the article.
As far as my thoughts on the odds, they look pretty much like they should, however I think St. Louis has better odds then Seattle. That said, it really doesn't matter much because both those cities would be my top 2 as well.
The New York odds seem a little high, but that might have to do with the article speculating not just on the 15th and 16th MLS clubs but also on the 17th and 18th. Fred Wilpon, an owner of baseball's New York Mets, is interested, but since the plan that seems to be out there calls for a soccer stadium to be built on the current site of Shea Stadium, they will need to wait till 2009 before they could even begin building such a project (that is when the new baseball stadium will open). That said, MLS wants a derby in New York and if there is a chance to have a stadium in the city, they will hold out for it.
It does seem like the Vegas odds are also a bit kind, but maybe they have some inside information (or maybe they are just hearing more about it and thinking it might come true). I would put their odds more at 20-1 with Miami and Portland a little bit behind them. The Miami bid really depends on Boca Juniors. If the club fully gets behind a bid, chances are good for them. As far as Portland, Seattle has very much climbed over them in the current race, but there is a good group of fans in the area and a Northwest derby would be a solid outing. Also, they already have a stadium that, with some improvements, could host games for the first few years.
The Phoenix option is very interesting and I'm guessing the reason heat was not listed in the piece is due to the talk of a stadium with a retractable-roof. There are two good groups going after this bid and both have good pedigrees. It might not have the glitz of a Vegas or the history of St. Louis, but they do draw some good crowds for big games. The problem is, most of those games involve Mexico and as has been proven in many other locations, international match draws don't always mean good local match draws. Still, I agree that they are the city most likely to surprise.
As far as the rest, I think Milwaukee has a slightly better chance then suggested while Cleveland has a little worse. Atlanta should be doing better but no local money seems interested, so their bid looks to be stalled. Philadelphia is probably the city MLS most wants to get into so if the stadium deal moves forward, it should happen. Vancouver seems like a natural fit, however with all the development issues that have been kicked up ahead of the 2010 Olympics, getting a stadium might be a little difficult. San Diego to me seems to be the longest shot due to stadium situations.
What do you think?
Labels: Atlanta, Cleveland, Las Vegas, Miami, Milwaukee, MLS, MLS expansion, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, Seattle, St. Louis, Vancouver