Wednesday, November 15, 2006

2006 preseason predictions versus reality

Now that the Houston Dynamo are champions and the MLS season is over, I thought it would be a good idea to look back at my pre-season predictions and see just how wildly wrong I was. On March 30th I made my predictions and here is how I thought the season would play out.

DC UnitedDC United
Chicago FireNew England Revolution
New England RevoltionChicago Fire
New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
Columbus CrewKansas City Wizards
Kansas City WizardsColumbus Crew

FC DallasFC Dallas
Chivas USAHouston Dynamo
Houston DynamoChivas USA
Los Angeles GalaxyColorado Rapids
Real Salt Lake Los Angeles Galaxy
Colorado RapidsReal Salt Lake

Round one
DC beats New YorkDC beat New York
New England beats ChicagoNew England beat Chicago
FC Dallas beats LAColorado beat FC Dallas
Houston beats ChivasHouston beat Chivas

Conference Championship
New England beats DCNew England beat DC
FC Dallas beats HoustonHouston beat Colorado

FC Dallas beats New EnglandHouston beat New England

Although I don't see it on my pre-season post, I thought FC Dallas would win the Supporteres' Shield, but DC United won that one.

All and all, not that bad in the prediction department. I got the top spots in each conference correct, but my placement on the others was a little off. I nailed the Eastern Conference playoff outcomes, but fumbled in the West thanks to first picking LA to take the fourth spot and second expecting Dallas to beat the fourth spot.

However, I did predicted that New England would lose in the final and I was right, I just had the wrong team from Texas taking the trophy.

Some other interesting things from my predictions:

Christian Gomez is going to have a wonderful year - correct
The Fire will need to survive a grueling road trip to start the season, but if they can walk away from it with 15 points, they will be very well positioned - they got 11 points
The Revs will be a good team this year, but they will suffer from the World Cup - wrong, they suffered for other reasons
New York is still disorganized and will take a month or so to gel - wrong, they never really gelled
Columbus will make a close race out of it with New York for spot number four - wrong
Kansas City will miss (the playoffs) by about 6 points - wrong, they only missed by 1

The big question for (Dallas) is the defense - correct, but isn't that always the case with Dallas?
Bob Bradley is a hell of a coach and he has brought in the talent needed to make a winning club - correct since Chivas was a winning club
Houston is still good and will threaten, but they will not be the juggernaut they were during the 2005 regular season - correct, not a juggernaut but a hell of a threat
Just getting by worked out great for (LA) in 2005, so why not do it again? - wrong
I just don't see a way for (Salt Lake) to sneak past the Galaxy - correct, but I thought it would be for fourth not fifth place
Colorado will not have enough to make it to the playoffs in a much tougher Western Conference - wrong, they were just tough enough.

All and all, not that bad. Now what about 2007?



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